How reliable are weather forecasts?

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Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere at a given place and time. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere at a given location and using meteorology to predict changes in the atmosphere.

Modern short-term weather forecast schemes allow predicting the future state of the atmosphere for a period of no more than 5-7 days, and the most reliable forecasts are for a period of up to 2 – 3 days. The validity of forecasts for the day reaches 90%.

Could the weather forecast be wrong ?

Sometimes forecasts are inaccurate. It happens for a number of reasons:

1) The mathematical models of the atmosphere are still imperfect.

2) There is not enough information about the state of the atmosphere.

3) It is very difficult to identify the influence of local conditions on the development of large-scale atmospheric processes that determine weather.

To eliminate the first two causes, hard scientific work and technical re-equipment of the meteorological observation network are needed. The third reason does not depend on the person, and there will always be a chance of errors in the short-term weather forecast.

There are many ways to use weather forecasts. Weather warnings are important forecasts because they are used to protecting life and property. Forecasts based on temperature and precipitation are important for agriculture and therefore for traders in commodity markets. Utilities use temperature forecasts to estimate demand in the coming days. Every day, many people use weather forecasts to determine what to wear on a particular day. Since outdoor activities are severely restricted due to heavy rain, snowfall, and cold, forecasts can be used to change your plans related to these events.

The predictability of the weather pattern on a given day in a given location does not exceed two weeks. In other words, no matter how much forecasting methods are improved, it is hard to predict a specific weather phenomenon on a particular day for three weeks ahead.

However, it does not mean that it’s pointless to forecast the weather for the month or season. is available for everyone who wants to know short-term or long-term forecasts.

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